Modeling and forecasting of the under-five mortality rate in Kermanshah province in Iran: a time series analysis

• 발행기관: 한국역학회
• 저자명: Mehran Rostami Abdollah Jalilian Behrooz Hamzeh Zahra Laghaei
• 간행물 정보: 『Epidemiology and Health』37, 1~9쪽, 전체 8쪽
• 주제분류: 의약학 > 면역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2015.05.30

영문 초록

OBJECTIVES: The target of the Fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG-4) is to reduce the rate of un-der-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Despite substantial progress towards achieving the target of the MDG-4 in Iran at the national level, differences at the sub-national levels should be taken into consideration. METHODS: The under-five mortality data available from the Deputy of Public Health, Kermanshah Universi-ty of Medical Sciences, was used in order to perform a time series analysis of the monthly under-five mortality rate (U5MR) from 2005 to 2012 in Kermanshah province in the west of Iran. After primary analysis, a season-al auto-regressive integrated moving average model was chosen as the best fitting model based on model se-lection criteria. RESULTS: The model was assessed and proved to be adequate in describing variations in the data. However, the unexpected presence of a stochastic increasing trend and a seasonal component with a periodicity of six months in the fitted model are very likely to be consequences of poor quality of data collection and reporting systems. CONCLUSIONS: The present work is the first attempt at time series modeling of the U5MR in Iran, and re-veals that improvement of under-five mortality data collection in health facilities and their corresponding sys-tems is a major challenge to fully achieving the MGD-4 in Iran. Studies similar to the present work can en-hance the understanding of the invisible patterns in U5MR, monitor progress towards the MGD-4, and predict the impact of future variations on the U5MR.

목차

Abstract

INTRODUCTION

MATERIALS AND METHODS

RESULTS

DISCUSSION

REFERENCES

키워드

Fourth Millennium Development Goal Infant mortality Time series Seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model Iran