자녀세액공제제도 도입이 기혼여성노동공급에 미치는 영향

• 영문명: The Effects of Introduction of Child Tax Credit on the Married Women"s Labor Supply in Korea
• 발행기관: 한국재정학회(구 한국재정·공공경제학회)
• 저자명: 김현숙(Hyunsook Kim) 성명재(Myung Jae Sung)
• 간행물 정보: 『공공경제』公共經濟 第12卷 第1號, 75~117쪽, 전체 43쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2007.05.30

국문 초록

  본 논문에서는 세후소득에 근거한 기혼여성 노동공급함수를 효용함수가 CES(Constant Elast of Substitution)함수라는 가정 하에 구측하고 2004년 한국노동패널자료를 이용하여 기흔여성의 노동공급함수를 추정하여 기흔여성이 소득세 부담에 따라 노동공급을 어떻게 변화시키는지 분석하였다. 실증분석 시 세후소득에 대한 도구변수들로 기혼여성의 직장경력, 교육수준, 시간당 보육비용의 추정치를 사용하여 2SLS 추정법으로 분석한 결과 세전소득에서 소득세를 차감하고 자녀의 시간당 보육비용을 차감한 세후소득에 대한 기혼여성의 보상임금탄력성은 0.23~0.26으로 세후소득이 증가할 때 노동공급시간을 증가시키는 것으로 나타났다. 실증분석을 통해 도출한 노동공급함수 추정치를 직접적으로 이용하여 기혼여성의 보육비용 지출을 세액공제를 통해 지원할 때 과연 기흔여성의 노동공급은 어느 정도 영향을 받는지를 살펴보기 위해 정책 시뮬레이션을 한 결과, 근로장려세제(EITC)와 유사한 내용으로 면세점 이하의 기혼여성 근로자만을 대상으로 세액공제를 허용해 주는 방안은 기혼여성 노동공급시간 확대는 9.5%, 신규노동시장 참여비율은 19.6% 증가시켜 그 효과가 상당한 것으로 나타났다. 또한 노동공급확대를 통해 나타나는 소득창출효과는 필요재정규모의 약 4매 수준으로 증가하는 것으로 나타났다.

영문 초록

  The trend toward very rapidly fallen total fertility rates and population ageing causes high share of elderly and low share of young and labor active population in Korea. It may imply the slow or negative economic growth in the economy due to the shortage of labor force in the future.
  We need to devise policy tools to increase fertility rates to cope with shortage of labor supply in the long run. At the same time, we need to induce inactive labor force into participating in labor market in the short term and the main force for inactive labor is married women in Korea.
  It is well-known that there may be a trade-off between fertility rates and women"s labor force participation and recently this relationship is changed to positive relationship in a few countries due to strong family friendly government policies.
  Thus we need to consider how to get high fertility rates as well as high married or coupled women"s labor force participation rates in designing a family friendly government policy. One of policy tools is to help women with children under age 5 to reconciliate work and child rearing, i.e., child care policy.
  Our research agenda is to lessen households" child care expense within income tax scheme using child tax credit and to see how much it can impact on women"s labor force participation rates and working hours.
  First, we construct married women"s labor supply function under CES<Constant elasticity of substitution) utility function assumption with the budget constraints incorporating child care expense and hour allocation <working-leisure) constraint. We estimate compensated and uncompensated wage elasticity for married women using year 2004 Korean Labor and Income Panel Study and get the compensated elasticity ranged from 0.23 to 0.26.
  We waive child care expense via child tax credit and increase women"s hourly wage to see child care cost impact on labor force participation and working hours of married women with children under age 5.
  We simulate three different child tax credit scheme to compare effects of different schemes. First, we give child tax credit for only low income women workers with children under age 5 without tax burden in current income tax regime. We design increasing-constant-decreasing tax credit based on the income size as Earned Income Tax Credit system does. The size of child tax credit is 30% of income under wage 5 million won, 1,500 thousand won for income 5~7 million won of income range and 50% of the difference between income and 7 million won for income 7~10 million won.
  This scheme creates 19.6% increase of new labor force participation and 9.5% increase of working hours. It also creates extra income four times higher compare to tax revenue loss for child tax credit implementation.
  Second scheme is to give lump-sum tax credit, 600 thousand won for middle income class and has no effect on married women"s labor activity. Third scheme is a proportional tax credit with tax burden under the current income tax regime and has only a small positive effect on working hours.
  We found that negative income tax credit for low income earners has large effect on women"s labor market activity whereas child tax credit policy for middle class and highly educated women has little effect.
  However, we can not conclude child tax credit for highly educated women has no effect based on this result only. Our income elasticity of married women is relative low and more diverse and sophisticated child tax credit design is needed to examine child tax credit effect on women"s labor force participation as well as working hours for the further elaborated study.

목차

요약문
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 기혼여성 노동공급함수 모형
Ⅲ. 실증분석
Ⅳ. 자녀세액공제제도 도입의 가상효과 실험
Ⅴ. 요약 및 결론
[참고문헌]
[부록]
[Abstract]

키워드

기혼여성노동공급 자녀세액공제제도 자녀보육비용 married women" s labor supply child tax credit child care cost