열화시스템의 수리를 위한 베이지안 의사결정모형의 개발

• 영문명: Developing a Bayesian Decision Model for Deteriorating System Repair
• 발행기관: 한국산업경영시스템학회
• 저자명: 김택상 안선응
• 간행물 정보: 『한국산업경영시스템학회 학술대회』2005년 춘계학술대회 논문집, 136~145쪽, 전체 10쪽
• 주제분류: 공학 > 산업공학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2005.05.01

영문 초록

  This paper is intended to develop a Bayesian decision model for the repair of deteriorating system. A non-homogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity function is used to describe the behavior of the deteriorating repairable system. The decision on whether to have minimal repair or imperfect repair should be made on the occurrence of a failure. However, it is difficult to make a reasonable decision due to many uncertainties intrinsic in repair actions. In this paper, prior distributions are used in order to analyze the uncertainties embedded in the decision alternatives. Especially, a prior distribution for imperfect repair with probabilistic reduction in the failure intensity is proposed. In addition, mathematical expressions to calculate the expected prior loss of each repair alternative are proposed.

목차

Abstract
1. 서론
2. 열화시스템의 고장발생 모형
3. 베이지안 의사결정 분석모형
4. 실험예제
5. 결론
참고문헌

키워드

Power Law Failure Model Bayesian Decision Model Prior Distribution