Vietnam's Long-run Growth: Connecting the Dots through Climate Damage Spillovers

• 발행기관: 세종대학교 경제통합연구소
• 저자명: Elodie Mania Thi Thu-Ha Nguyen Arsène Rieber Thi Anh-Dao Tran
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of Economic Integration』제39권 제1호, 227~252쪽, 전체 26쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2024.03.01

국문 초록

Abstract We propose to examine how climate damage may transform Vietnam's long-run growth rate. Because of cross-country linkages forged by bilateral trade, there are two channels through which international damage spillovers may occur. First, the dynamics of partners' growth determine future trends in Vietnam's volume of exports. Second, since the domestic impact of climate change may be heterogeneous across countries, there will be a differentiated impact on export and import market shares. Both terms play a critical role in changing trade patterns that are likely to shift Vietnam's external constraint. This demand-side view of growth based on the balance-of-payments constraint is a powerful predictor of inter-country growth differences. Our study show that the consequences of climate change could equate to a 2.5% reduction in Vietnam's growth rate over the period 2020-2060. Our decomposition exercise by effect and by partner area shows that international damage spillovers result from very different individual behaviours.

목차

I. Introduction

II. Background and Motivation

III. The Theoretical Framework

IV. Data and Methodology

V. Prospective Background Information

VI. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Vietnam's International Trade Position

VII. Conclusion

키워드

balance-of-payments-constrained growth model climate change adaptation international damage spillovers macroeconomic resilience Vietnam