일본에서의 소비지출에 대한 물가 변동의 영향

• 영문명: The Effects of Price Changes on Japanese Consumption
• 발행기관: 한일경상학회
• 저자명: 최희갑(Hee-Gab Choi) 임병준(Byeong-Jun Rhim)
• 간행물 정보: 『한일경상논집』제105권, 181~195쪽, 전체 15쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경영학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2024.11.30

국문 초록

Purpose: This study evaluates the impact of price changes on Japanese consumption from 1970 to 2022, which include not only an inflation period but also an exceptionally extended period of deflation. Research design, data, and methodology: The theoretical framework of Lettau & Ludvigson (2001) from dynamic budget constraints was used to analyze the peried from 1970 to 2022 in Japan, which was divided into two peiod including the inflation period from 1970 to 1994 and the deflation period from 1995 to 2022. Engle-Granger co-integration and error correction were employed for the estimation. Results: A co-integration relationship between private consumption expenditure, real estate wealth, net financial asset, and labor income was found. When the inflation variable was added to the short-term consumption function estimated by the error correction model, the explanatory power of the consumption model was improved. In particular, an increase in the inflation was found to have an adverse effect on consumption. This adverse effect was observed not only in the inflation period but also in the deflation period. However, the statistical significance was weakened. Implications: According to the study, the government is advised to provide stable moderate inflation to mitigate the adverse effect of the increase in the inflaiton on consumption. Thus, the government is recommended to maintain a prudent monetary policy to stabilize inflation to increase consumption. The Japanese experience also provides significant implications for Korea, which is following Japan’s low-growth paradigm due to its population structure, etc. If deflation has a stimulating impact on consumption, excessive intervention to eliminate the deflation in a recession needs to be cautious and gradual.

목차

1. 서론

2. 이론적 배경

3. 분석 자료와 실증분석

4. 결론과 시사점

References

키워드

Consumption Inflation Co-integration Error-Correction

참고문헌

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