The Impact of Monetary Policy on Household Debt in China

• 발행기관: 한국유통과학회
• 저자명: Mehmet CANAKCI
• 간행물 정보: 『The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business(JAFEB)』Vol. 8 No.4, 653~663쪽, 전체 11쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2021.04.30

영문 초록

There has been a massive increase in household debt in China, especially in the last five of years. Learning from past experiences, the country needs careful forecasting that may help to form new policies or make amendments to the existing ones. This research paper aims to highlight the impact of the monetary policy on household debt in China. The study covers the time period from 1996 to 2020 The study employs a cointegration test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test (ARDL) approach, a Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) and PP test (PMG) and time series data. The findings suggest on a quantitative analysis using a time-series model in which gdp per capita and interest rate has a positive impact on household debt whereas, cpi doesn’t have significant impact. In a short-term variables relationship, household debt responds more to an increase in income than in the long-term. Also, the impact of interest rate changes on household debt is lower than income in the short run.The research suggests that there should be some restrictions on household debt and consumer financing provided to citizens and for this, appropriate leverage measures should be taken in order for the central bank to sustain robust macroeconomic conditions.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Literature Review

3. Data, Model and Methodology

4. Results and Findings

5. Discussion

6. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations

키워드

Household Debt Monetary Policy Interest Rate Household Expenditure