부동산 뉴스와 주택경기의 동적 관계에 대한 고찰

• 영문명: Exploring the Dynamic Relationship between Real Estate News and Housing Market: Focusing on the Development of Media Tone Index
• 발행기관: 한국지역개발학회
• 저자명: 서정석(Seo, Jungseok) 오지훈(Oh, Jihun) 김정섭(Kim, Jeongseob)
• 간행물 정보: 『한국지역개발학회지』제33권 제1호, 89~112쪽, 전체 24쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 지역개발
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2021.03.31

영문 초록

It is well known that news can affect the psychological factor and sustain the housing bubble by framing specific information about the housing market. The news reports about real estate market could affect an expectation of housing consumers which is one of the significant factors to explain housing market trends. To explore the relationship among housing market news, consumers sentiment, and market trends, we develop a Media Tone Index based on housing news articles collected from the online portal site. We apply text-mining techniques to quantify the tones of news articles related to the housing market. Then, we conduct time-series analysis such as Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Error Correction (ARDL-EC) models to analyze the dynamic relationship between the Media Tone Index and housing market trends in South Korea. As a result, we identify similar time-series trends between the Media Tone index and consumers sentiment. Moreover, when the housing market was on a downtrend, news articles tone tended to become positive. The relationship between the Media Tone Index and other housing market variables identified in this study could provide a better understanding of housing market dynamics both in the short- and long-term.

목차

1. 서론

2. 이론적 고찰

3. 연구의 범위 및 방법

4. 분석결과

5. 결론

키워드

주택시장(Housing Market) 감성분석(Sentiment Analysis) 언론논조（Media Tone) 자기회귀분배시차-오차수정 (ARDL-EC) 모형