학술논문
Macroeconomic Buffer Effects of Mega-FTA Formation: A CGE Analysis for Korea
이용수 79
- 영문명
- 발행기관
- 한국무역학회
- 저자명
- Jae-Won Jung Tae-Hwang Kim
- 간행물 정보
- 『Journal of Korea Trade (JKT)』Vol.23 No.3, 118~137쪽, 전체 20쪽
- 주제분류
- 경제경영 > 무역학
- 파일형태
- 발행일자
- 2019.05.31
5,200원
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국문 초록
영문 초록
Purpose - As global trade disputes intensify and global trade uncertainty increases due to the prevailing trade protectionism all over the world, mega-FTAs such as the RCEP and CPTPP are suggested as strategic trade policy options for export-driven small open economies, such as Korea. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of Korea’s mega-FTA participation and the induced implications for the Korean economy.
Design/methodology - We use a multi-region, multi-sector global CGE model, and investigate the different effects of both the US-China and US-EU trade wars on the relative changes in GDP, welfare, and trade under different trade policy regimes; (i) Korea does not participate in any mega-FTA, (ii) Korea participates in the RCEP, and (iii) Korea participates in the CPTPP.
Findings - We show, among others, that though industrial effects might be largely varied, the overall enlarging of free trade zones through multilateral mega-FTA participation may contribute significantly to the macroeconomic soundness and stability of Korea, even when global trade protectionism prevails. Under RCEP and CPTPP trade regimes, Korea’s GDP may increase even when the global trade environment deteriorates as trade wars occur and intensify between the US and China, or between the US and EU. It is also estimated that RCEP participation increases Korea’s GDP, welfare (measured in equivalent variation), and total trade by 1.12%, $1.09 billion, and 2.54%, respectively, while CPTPP participation increases them by 0.19%, $0.92 billion, and 0.13%, respectively.
Originality/value - Existing studies usually focus on the direct impacts of mega-FTA participation on macroeconomic variables such as GDP, welfare, and trade, and do not consider the possible buffer effects of a mega-FTA when the global trade environment worsens. In this paper, we analyze and quantify not only the direct impacts of RCEP and CPTPP on the main macroeconomic variables but also the possible buffer effects of the RCEP and CPTPP in the cases of the US-China and US-EU trade wars.
목차
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Research Method
3. Macroeconomic Effects of the RCEP and CPTPP
4. Macroeconomic Buffer Effects of the RCEP and CPTPP
5. Conclusion
References
Appendix
해당간행물 수록 논문
- Overseas Subsidiaries and the Productivity of Two-way Trading Manufacturers in Global Value Chains
- Internationalization of Brand Biography: Firm Characteristics as Moderators
- Trade Coordination in Free Trade Agreements and Customs Unions
- Compliance of Electronic Bill of Lading Regulation in Korea with Model Law on Electronic Transferable Records
- Macroeconomic Buffer Effects of Mega-FTA Formation: A CGE Analysis for Korea
- Effects of AEO-MRA on the Performance of Exporters and Importers in Korea
- The Effects of Affiliation with Export Service-Providers on Sustainable Competitive Advantage: A Perspective of Small- and Medium-sized Exporters
- The Qualitative Trade Competitiveness of China in IT Industry: A Comparison to Korea and USA
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