학술논문
Forecasting and Evaluation of the Accident Rate and Fatal Accident in the Construction Industries
이용수 21
- 영문명
- 발행기관
- 한국산업경영시스템학회
- 저자명
- Young-Sig Kang(강영식)
- 간행물 정보
- 『산업경영시스템학회지』제40권 제1호, 87~94쪽, 전체 8쪽
- 주제분류
- 경제경영 > 경영학
- 파일형태
- 발행일자
- 2017.03.30
4,000원
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국문 초록
영문 초록
Many industrial accidents have occurred continuously in the manufacturing industries, construction industries, and service industries of Korea. Fatal accidents have occurred most frequently in the construction industries of Korea. Especially, the trend analysis of the accident rate and fatal accident rate is very important in order to prevent industrial accidents in the construction industries systematically. This paper considers forecasting of the accident rate and fatal accident rate with static and dynamic time series analysis methods in the construction industries. Therefore, this paper describes the optimal accident rate and fatal accident rate by minimization of the sum of square errors (SSE) among regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, proposed analytic function model (PAFM), and kalman filtering model (KFM) with existing accident data in construction industries.
In this paper, microsoft foundation class (MFC) soft of Visual Studio 2008 was used to predict the accident rate and fatal accident rate. Zero Accident Program developed in this paper is defined as the predicted accident rate and fatal accident rate, the zero accident target time, and the zero accident time based on the achievement probability calculated rationally and practically. The minimum value for minimizing SSE in the construction industries was found in 0.1666 and 1.4579 in the accident rate and fatal accident rate, respectively. Accordingly, RAM and ARIMA model are ideally applied in the accident rate and fatal accident rate, respectively. Finally, the trend analysis of this paper provides decisive information in order to prevent industrial accidents in construction industries very systematically.
목차
1. 서 론
2. 연구방법 및 재해율 예측 모형
3. 사례연구
4. 결 론
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