학술논문
Predictive Analysis of Traffic Accidents caused by Negligence of Safe Driving in Elderly using Seasonal ARIMA
이용수 11
- 영문명
- 발행기관
- 한국산업경영시스템학회
- 저자명
- Jae-Moon Kim(김재문) Sung-Ho Chang(장성호) Sung-Soo Kim(김성수)
- 간행물 정보
- 『산업경영시스템학회지』제40권 제1호, 65~78쪽, 전체 14쪽
- 주제분류
- 경제경영 > 경영학
- 파일형태
- 발행일자
- 2017.03.30
4,480원
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국문 초록
영문 초록
Even though cars have a good effect on modern society, traffic accidents do not. There are traffic laws that define the regulations and aim to reduce accidents from happening; nevertheless, it is hard to determine all accident causes such as road and traffic conditions, and human related factors. If a traffic accident occurs, the traffic law classifies it as ‘Negligence of Safe Driving’ for cases that are not defined by specific regulations. Meanwhile, as Korea is already growing rapidly elderly population with more than 65 years, so are the number of traffic accidents caused by this group. Therefore, we studied predictive and comparative analysis of the number of traffic accidents caused by ‘Negligence of Safe Driving’ by dividing it into two groups : All-ages and Elderly.
In this paper, we used empirical monthly data from 2007 to 2015 collected by TAAS (Traffic Accident Analysis System), identified the most suitable ARIMA forecasting model by using the four steps of the Box-Jenkins method : Identification, Estimation, Diagnostics, Forecasting. The results of this study indicate that ARIMA (1, 1, 0)(0, 1, 1)12 is the most suitable forecasting model in the group of All-ages; and ARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 is the most suitable in the group of Elderly. Then, with this fitted model, we forecasted the number of traffic accidents for 2 years of both groups. There is no large fluctuation in the group of All-ages, but the group of Elderly shows a gradual increase trend. Finally, we compared two groups in terms of the forecast, suggested a countermeasure plan to reduce traffic accidents for both groups.
목차
1. 서 론
2. 이론적 배경
3. 실증분석
4. 결 론
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