제주지역 경제예측모형 구축에 관한 연구

• 영문명: A Study on the Jeju-do Regional Economic Forecasting Model
• 발행기관: 한국지역개발학회
• 저자명: 고봉현(Ko Bong Hyun) 강기춘(Kang Gi Choon) 강연실(Kang Yeon Sil)
• 간행물 정보: 『한국지역개발학회지』제24권 제5호, 21~39쪽, 전체 19쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 지역개발
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2012.12.30

영문 초록

The purpose of this study is to construct the Jeju-do Regional Economic Forecasting Model. We analyze the Jeju-do economy and examine the inter-sectoral relationships in the region. This model consists of seven blocks-production block, employment block, wage and price level block, financial block, public finance block, foreign sector block, and other block. This model also consists of seventeen behavioral equations, three identity equations so that the model is the simultaneous equation system of twenty structural equations. We consider Ordinary Least Squares(OLS) as the estimation method. We rely on the Root Mean Squared Percent Error(RMSE%) in the evaluation of the models. And this model show the satisfactory levels of RMSE%, excepting import. After identifying the best model structure in term of the RMSE%, we perform policy simulation to measure the effects of three exogenous shocks on the Jeju-do regional economy; exchange rate shock, foreigner tourist shock, and real national income shock. The result of the policy simulation is consistent with what various macroeconomic theories predicts.

목차

1. 서 론

2. 이론적 고찰

3. 제주경제 예측모형 개발

4. 모형의 평가 및 정책모의실험

5. 결 론

주

참 고 문 헌

키워드

제주지역 경제(Jeju Regional Economy) 연립방정식모형(Simultaneous Equation Model) 지역 거시계량경제모형(Regional Macroeconometric model) 예측모형(Forecasting Model)