북한 핵과 대한민국 생존책

• 영문명: North Korean Nuclear Weapons and the Survival of the Republic of Korea
• 발행기관: 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회)
• 저자명: 송대성(SONG, Daesung)
• 간행물 정보: 『신아세아』新亞細亞 第22卷 第4號, 26~35쪽, 전체 10쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정치외교학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2015.12.30

영문 초록

North Korea failed to denuclearize in 2015 and is close to becoming a nuclear weapon state. With North Korea as a neighbor, the ROK is now hostage of a nuclear-armed North Korea. North Korea’s nuclear development program can be analyzed from two perspectives: one in which it develops nuclear weapons and one in which it has not yet done so. If the North has not yet developed nuclear weapons, we must focus on how to prevent it from doing so. There are seven ways to prevent North Korea from going nuclear: (1) dialogue/negotiation; (2) containment/sanctions; (3) strike/preemption; (4) covert operations; (5) changing the North Korean regime; (6) unification between South and North Korea; (7) increasing unstable elements of the North Korean regime. The most serious obstacle to the denuclearization of North Korea is the fact that five participants in the Six-Party Talks – all except North Korea – have wasted almost 15 years in unproductive dialogues. North Korea, which has maintained a military-first policy as its paramount political objective, is virtually a nuclear weapon state. We should therefore focus on the other six measures, choose the most appropriate option among them, and execute it. If North Korea becomes a nuclear weapon state, there are four steps that could be taken to maintain the “balance of terror” against the threat it poses. First, US nuclear weapons should be immediately brought back to the Korean peninsula. If the United States opposes this idea, then South Korea could “rent” nuclear weapons from another nuclear state. If neither of those steps is possible, a third step would be to buy nuclear weapons from another nuclear state. If none of these options are available, then the Republic of Korea should declare that it will produce nuclear weapons for its own survival. National security cannot be abandoned. A value cannot be more noble than the ‘survival of the Republic of Korea’. Issues such as alliances, friendships with neighbors, a “nuclear free world”, and public opinion can be discussed only when the survival of the ROK is assured.

목차

Ⅰ. 2015년 북한 핵개발의 현주소

Ⅱ. 북핵 대응 방안과 우리의 생존

키워드

Nuclear-Armed North Korea Balance of Terror Survival