2015 북한 내부동향 진단

• 영문명: Diagnosis of the Internal Situation in North Korea 2015
• 발행기관: 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회)
• 저자명: 김영수(KIM, Young-Soo)
• 간행물 정보: 『신아세아』新亞細亞 第22卷 第4號, 19~25쪽, 전체 7쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정치외교학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2015.12.30

영문 초록

2015 has been a transformational year for the North Korean regime. Kim Jung Un has centralized political power while the North Korean economy has decentralized. Now, Kim Jong Un’s top priority is to establish a monolithic leadership system similar to that successfully wielded by his predecessors, Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. The 7th Party Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK), in May 2016, will be the perfect occasion to formally announce a new ruling system for Kim Jong Un’s regime. From an economic perspective, the key fact is the emergence of more than 400 geographically dispersed black markets, which effectively bolster the destitute North Korean economy. Meanwhile, the social values of the people have started to shift away from obedience and allegiance toward moneymaking. As democratic centralism has dissipated, the principles of a market economy have begun taking root. Since the North Korean regime’s operational principles are undergoing qualitative change, it is no longer feasible to expect a soft landing for the North Korean regime. As a result, Kim Jong Un’s transition to absolute leadership is not expected to go smoothly. So, while it is probable that the 7th WPK Congress in 2016 will help in the short term, it is unlikely to function as an effective mechanism to permanently strengthen Kim Jong Un’s governing legitimacy.

목차

Ⅰ. 지금 북한

Ⅱ. 최근 물가와 환율

Ⅲ. 북한체제 작동원리의 변화

Ⅳ. 북한 내부동향 진단

키워드

Kim Jong Un Leadership Monolithic Leadership System Excessive Mobilization Excessive Loyalty Regime Change the 7th Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea.