교통부문의 온실가스 감축이 자동차산업에 미치는 효과 분석

• 영문명: Effects of Transportation Greenhouse Gas Reduction Policy on Economic Activities in Automobile Industry
• 발행기관: 한국경제연구원
• 저자명: 김영덕(Youngduk Kim)
• 간행물 정보: 『한국경제연구원 연구보고서』연구보고서 2011-04-02, 261~440쪽, 전체 180쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2011.01.28

영문 초록

Generally, policies for greenhouse gas emission reduction in the transportation sector will affect firms’ production activities and then weaken competitiveness in the sector. In this sense, it is important to evaluate how the climate change policy affects firm’s competitiveness. This study investigates some greenhouse gas emission reduction programs for the transportation sector and provides policy options for activating the programs. And then we empirically analyze impacts of the greenhouse gas emission reduction policy on the production activities and competitiveness in the transportation sector. The results of the study can be summarized as follows: First, the market price-setting power of the automotive industries is assessed. The aim is to ask whether the industries were vulnerable to competition or not. The industries show domestic costs exerting a strong influence on their price-setting regimes. There does not appear to be widespread vulnerability to carbon tax reform or emission trading scheme. Secondly, this study seeks to quantify the potential competitiveness effect on the automotive industries of a energy price increase to regulate greenhouse gas. Our empirical analysis suggests that there is likely to be a significant competitiveness impact on the automotive industries as a whole. It shows that output, employment, and exports in these industries decrease significantly as their energy costs, especially electricity costs, rise with imposition of a carbon price. The finding that most of the effect on competitiveness arises from an increase in electricity costs has important policy implications. Thirdly, this study tries to estimate impact of a energy price increase on vehicle consumption behavior. The empirical analysis suggests that there is not likely to be a discernible effect on vehicle consumption. Moreover, this study estimate the amount of GHG emission reduction from a carbon tax in the transportation sector in Korea using a price elasticity of gasoline. We also consider substitutability by adding diesel as a substitute for gasoline in the estimation. With these estimates, we measure the tax effects on CO₂ emissions with and without substitutability. When the CO₂ tax is charged an additional 　10,000 per CO₂ ton, CO₂ emissions can be reduced by 183,224 ton of CO₂ without substitutability toward more fuel efficient vehicle. In contrast, if a more efficient alternative vehicle is available, CO₂ emission reduction can reach 218,065 ton of CO₂. If more efficient and less CO₂-emitted vehicles are available, the tax effect on CO₂ reduction will be greater. Currently, the availability of substitutable and less CO₂-emitted vehicles are limited in vehicle market, and the vehicle change effect of CO₂ tax on CO₂ emission through the cross price elasticity will be very weak. In order to make the tax effect on CO₂ emissions greater, we can use the tax revenue from CO₂ tax to develop more efficient and less CO₂-emitted vehicles.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 온실가스 저감수단과 산업경쟁력

Ⅲ. 교통부문의 온실가스 저감수단

Ⅳ. 교통부문 온실가스 저감수단의 자동차산업 경쟁력에 미치는 영향 분석과 평가

Ⅴ. 결론

참고문헌

부록

Abstract