부동산경매물건수와 경제변수간 동태적 관계에 관한 실증연구 - 전국 경매물건수 변화요인을 중심으로

• 영문명: The Case Study for Dynamic the Relation between Case of Real Estate Auction and Economic Variables - Focused on Change Factor from Number of Auction"s Case by National -
• 발행기관: 한국부동산학회
• 저자명: 우형달(Woo Hyung Dal) 이학동(Lee Hak Dong)
• 간행물 정보: 『부동산학보』不動産學報 第29輯, 51~66쪽, 전체 16쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경영학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2007.05.30

영문 초록

  1. CONTENTS
  (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
  The fluctuation in the quantity of articles for auction, the main subject of the dissertation, would be presumably affected by the macro economic environment, however the actual study of which macro factors might affect the fluctuation in the quantity of articles for auction is wholly lacking. While the real estate law auction is currently becoming the promising method of the financial technology among the real estate investors through the currency crisis, the study intends to provide the useful perspective for predicting the volatility of the auction market and the quantity of articles for auction to the real estate investors according to the business cycle or the real estate cycle hereafter. Moreover it would be able to make a first stepping stone for inventing the law auction index through the changes of the quantity of articles for the real estate law auction.
  (2) RESEARCH METHODS
  Analyzing the macro-business index including the business cycle and the real estate cycle for the last 12 years (1995-2006), the study intends to verify which specific variables among these factors affect the change in the quantity of articles for auction by demonstratively analyzing the reacting extent of the number of the auction according to the interactions of cause and effect and the change of the macro-economic variables through utilizing the time series analysis and the statistical method for quantitative analysis, using the macro-economic variables.
  The statistical data in the study includes total 144 data from Jan. 1995 to Dec. 2006. The macro-economic variables are comprised of the monthly data such as the composite stock exchange index, the consumer price index, the number of dishonored companies, the unemployment rate, the average balance(m2) variation rate, the overnight call rate, the household loan interest, the home equity loan interest and the CD rate etc. Before the analysis, every time series data used Census X-11 arima due to the fact that the construction permissions, the lease price index, the house market price index, the price index of the apartment in Seoul, the lease price index in Seoul and the house market once index in Seoul have financial seasonableness. The statistical data from the Office of Court Administration and the data from the auction information offering agency are used for the quantity in the articles for the auction.
  (3) RESEARCH RESULTS
  As a result of the statistical analysis, the macro economic variables mainly affect the change of the quantity in the articles for the auction merely, however the impact of the quantity in the articles for the auction on the economic variables is turned out to be very little or too rare to consider. However it is shown that the quantity in the articles for the auction which began to increase rapidly after 2002 might be caused by the non-economic factors.
  2. RESULTS
  The study as a result suggests that the participatory government has intervened in the real estate market through the collecting the loaned money or regulating the loan with the mobility which is supplied in the real estate market as well as the taxation policy, however these macro factors can affect the real estate price and cause the increase of the real estate auction properties and the bankruptcy followed by the default on an obligation among the middle and the lower class people who are small business owners in the urban area at the same time. Therefore it implies that more scrupulous policy is required when the government would be involved in the real estate market by using the macro economic variables.

목차

ABSTRACT
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 부동산 법원 경매와 일반경제변수 관련 선행 연구
Ⅲ. 전국경매물건수와 일반 경제변수간의 인과관계분석
Ⅳ. 전국경매물건수와 각 변수간의 동태적 실증분석
Ⅴ. 요약 및 결론
參考文獻

키워드

Fluctuation in real estate economy fluctuation in the quantity of articles for auction real estate auction properties insolvent obligation