Forecasting Accidents by Transforming Event Trees into Influence disgrams

• 영문명: Forecasting Accidents by Transforming Event Trees into Influence disgrams
• 발행기관: 한국산업경영시스템학회
• 저자명: Hee-Joong Yang
• 간행물 정보: 『산업경영시스템학회지』제29권 제1호, 72~75쪽, 전체 4쪽
• 주제분류: 공학 > 산업공학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2006.03.01

영문 초록

  Event trees are widely used graphical tool to denote the accident inintiation and escalation to more severe accident. But they have some drawbacks in that they do not have effjcient way of updating model parameters and also they can not contain the information about dependency or independency among model parameters. A tool that can cure such drawbacks is an influence diagram. We introduce influence diagrams and explain how to update model parameters and obtain predictive distributions. We show that an event tree can be converted to a statistically equivalent influence diagram, and bayesian prediction can be made more effectively through the use of influence diagrams.

목차

Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Event trees
3. Influence diagrams
4. Getting Influence diagram from event tree
5. Numerical Example
6. Summary
References