合理的 期待理論의 再吟味-政策無效性命題를 中心으로-

• 영문명: Reexamination of the Theory of Rational Expectations
• 발행기관: 인하대학교 산업경제연구소
• 저자명: 정세호(Sae-Ho Chung)
• 간행물 정보: 『경상논집』연구논문집 제1집, 23~38쪽, 전체 16쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 1987.05.01

영문 초록

In this paper the theory of rational expectations is reexamined with respect to the neutrality of macroeconomic policy measures under rational expectations. The two important hypotheses, 1) the rational expectations theory and 2) the theory of continuous market clearing, are closely studied by means of mathematical models in order to thoroughly understand the underlying meaning of those theories. The thorough grasp of the two hypotheses helps indicate clearly under exactly what conditions the argument of the new classical school, that all macro policy measures are ineffective, holds. The validity and policy implications of rational expectations are, then, studied in reference to various emperical evidences. It was shown that emperical evidences fail to support the neutrality of macro policy measures under rational expectations. At the same time it was also shown that the theory of rational expectations made an important contribution to the macroeconomics by pinpointing the serious defficiency in the Keynsian macroeconomic model. In their model Keynsians assume that the private sector remains passive while the government intervene to stabilize the economy, thus guranteeing the effectiveness of the government policy. This is not exactly realistic when one considers the fact that people do react one way or another to the known government Policy in order to Protest their own interests. The important policy implication that can be drawn from the rational expectations theory is, therefore, that the government must take into consideration the possible reactions of the private sector in the formulation and implementation of macroeconomic policy in order for policy to be effective.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 합리적 기대혁명의 역사적 배경

Ⅲ. 합리적 기대모델의 이론적 성립배경

Ⅳ. 새고전학파 거시경제이론

Ⅴ. 새고전학파거시이론의 경험적 타당성과 정책적 의의

Ⅵ. 결론

참고문헌

Abstract