A Gravity Model of Net Benefits of EU Membership : The Case of Ukraine

• 영문명: A Gravity Model of Net Benefits of EU Membership : The Case of Ukraine
• 발행기관: 세종대학교 경제통합연구소
• 저자명: Oleksandr Shepotylo
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of Economic Integration』제25권 제4호, 676~702쪽, 전체 27쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2010.12.31

영문 초록

This paper develops a methodology for trade policy analysis of costs and benefits of alternative regional integration scenarios. The methodology is based on the disaggregated gravity equation, which is applied to calculate the impact of the EU enlargement on integration strategies of non-member countries. In particular, the paper measures the impact of the 2004 EU enlargement from the standpoint of Ukraine - a country that has been lost in transition. This angle allows estimating the costs of non-integration that occurred due to trade and investment diversion, and forgone opportunity to carry out structural changes in the Ukrainian economy. According to the results, the EU accession would have had a positive effect on total export volumes and would have changed the composition of Ukrainian exports by almost doubling exports of manufactured goods by 2007. The costs of non-integration accumulate towards the end of the investigated period. Projecting the results into the future clearly indicates that the benefits of the EU accession for Ukraine would have been unambiguously positive and would overweight benefits of the CIS integration.

목차

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Behavioral Differences between the EU and CIS Countries

Ⅲ. Model and Estimation Methodology

Ⅳ. Data Sources and Variable Definitions

Ⅴ. Results

키워드

Gravity Model EU Enlargement Ukraine CIS Heterogeneous Firms Trade Policy