EMU Membership and Business Cycle Phases in Europe

• 영문명: EMU Membership and Business Cycle Phases in Europe: Markov-Switching VAR Analysis
• 발행기관: 세종대학교 경제통합연구소
• 저자명: Michel Beine Bertrand Candelon Khalid Sekkat
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of Economic Integration』제18권 제1호, 214~242쪽, 전체 29쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2003.03.31

영문 초록

Most empirical applications of the OCA approach based on asymmetric shocks have failed to account for the credibility aspects that play an important role in deciding to join the EMU from the EMS or the EMS-BIS. In this paper, we tackle this problem by relying on a regime switching approach that characterizes the position of each economy in its business cycle. Then, using desynchronisation indices based on a non parametric approach, we measure the amplitude and the duration of divergence in the business cycles in order to assess the potential stabilization cost induced by the European economic and monetary union.

목차

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Measuring Asymmetric Shocks

Ⅲ. The Methodology

Ⅳ. Empirical Results

Ⅴ. Conclusion

키워드

Business cycle OCA Switching regines