토지개발수요 추정 연구

• 영문명: Demand Forecast of Land Development in Korea
• 발행기관: 한국지역경제학회
• 저자명: 홍기용(Ki-yong Hong) 이선(Sun Lee)
• 간행물 정보: 『한국지역경제연구』제3권 제1호, 45~68쪽, 전체 24쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2005.06.30

영문 초록

The purpose of this study aims at analyzing the determinant factors of land development demand under the influence of Korea's land policies and regulations through optimum modelling process using statistical multivariate analysis approach. The study found five significant results. First, the optimum model with an adjusted coefficient of determination higher than 0.5 and all independent variables in the model were found to be statistically significant under the 1% level of significance. Second, the maximum outcome of the adjusted coefficient of determination did not exceed a value of 0.6, which indicates an explaining power of 60%. The optimum model's coefficient value of 0.513 demonstrates that Korea's land policy and restriction regulations influence the land demand market. The optimum model does not account for the remaining 40%, but the explaining power of the optimum model is still high enough for this situation. Third, according to the regression analysis, regions under high development pressure were found to be better explained by three major determinant factors. These factors are related to agriculture, land price and the urban environment. Fourth, among the four independent variables, contained in the optimum model, traffic generation was the best explaining variable for the model. The second best explaining variable was the dummy variable, followed by land for potential development, and lastly by the rate of residential land price escalation. Fifth, in addition to relying on statistical results, such as the coefficient value of determination, highly experienced judgment is considered very important for developing modelling of any study area under the heavy influence of policies and regulations.

목차

1. 서론

2. 토지개발수요모형의 추정

4. 최적 토지개발수요모형의 추정

5. 결론

키워드

최적모형 다변량통계분석 토지개발수요 Optimum Model Statistical Multivariate Analysis Land Development Demand