[특집] 미국 부시 행정부의 대 한반도 안보ㆍ국방정책 결정요인 연구

• 영문명: Prospect for the Bush Administration's Security Policy toward the Korean Peninsula
• 발행기관: 한국전략문제연구소
• 저자명: 남궁곤
• 간행물 정보: 『전략연구』통권 제22호, 6~33쪽, 전체 28쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정치외교학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2001.07.31

영문 초록

This study intends to explore the Bush Administration's Security Policy toward the Korean Peninsula. The Clinton Administration's Korean policy was conducted based on the engagement and enlargement principle. However, it wanted a consistent strategy and a systematic tactics for the maintenance of status quo and peaceful reconciliation between two Koreas. It also lacked a confidence of making proper use of American power. Some analysts criticized the Clinton's foreign policy as conducted according to vulnerable public opinion and political consultant rather than national interests and peaceful coexistence. The Bush Administration's security policy toward the Korean peninsula will be determined by various factors. The most critical factor shaping the Bush Administration's Korean policy is regarded as U S desire to develop the Missile Defense system. The Missile Defense initiative will determine the distribution of powers in the world system. It also results in the strong solidarity among Russia, China, and North Korea. The Bush Administrations strong will to strengthen the US-Japan alliance will be another factor to construct its security policy toward the Korean peninsula. The strong tie between the United States and Japan will instigate Japanese international roles, which will conflict with Chinese roles. The Bush Administration's Korean policy will be dealt as a part of American China policy. President Bush's attitudes toward the world is categorized as American internationalism. He believes in the credibility of power diplomacy and traditional allies. On the contrary, he has a strong distrust of traditional foes including North Korea. He puts the highest priority in the US. pursuing the American hegemony. It will create a tension among East-Asian countries. The perceptions and ideologies of Bush's foreign policy staff are another consideration. He got rid of some ad hoc institutions concerning American foreign policy. Since he has little experience of international affairs, the Bush Administration's security policy will be contingent on his staff members. All staff members are divided into two categories. One is hard-liners and the other is conserves. The congress is dominated by the Republican party. Since the 1970s the degree of congressional influence on American foreign policy is being increased. According to the constituency's needs, the congressional pressure to the Bush Administration will be in the increase. The Bush Administration has been closely related to the military-industry complex. The industry of arms transfer has been monopolized by some major companies. They are reported to be great contributors to the Republican Party. Their opinions and advisers will be reflected on the Bush Administrations defense policy. American public opinion is characterized as isolationist pulse. American people demand their government to delineate from international affairs and concentrate the domestic issues. They want their leaders to reduce US troops abroad and foreign aids. In particular, the Bush Administration is forced to reflect their demands on their foreign policy agendas. The Bush Administration's security policy toward the Korean peninsula are expected as following: The policy priority is put to the maintenance of the Korean-US alliance system. Considering the principle of selective interventionism, the function and number of US troops in Korea will be reconsidered. In addition, the United States will ask the Korean government to proclaim the support of the Missile Defense plan. With regard to the relationship between North-South Korea, the Bush Administration will strictly apply the reciprocal principle. Particularly the Bush Administration will have negative images of North Korea and Jung-il Kim, and will be skeptic about the possibility of North Korea's change.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 클린턴 행정부의 대한반도 안보ㆍ국방정책 평가

Ⅲ. 분석틀: 미국의 안보ㆍ국방정책 결정요인

Ⅳ. 부시 행정부의 대한반도 안보ㆍ국방정책 결정요인

Ⅴ. 부시 행정부의 대한반도 안보ㆍ국방정책 전망

Ⅵ. 우리의 대응방안