[특집] 미ㆍ중 대결구도하 한국의 안보전략

• 영문명: Redistribution of Power between the United States and the PRC and Korea's Security Strategy
• 발행기관: 한국전략문제연구소
• 저자명: 김우상
• 간행물 정보: 『전략연구』통권 제22호, 72~105쪽, 전체 34쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정치외교학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2001.07.31

영문 초록

In this paper, I have speculated the future regional security structure based on the 'China factor' and the 'America factor.' All four scenarios seem plausible. First of all, the power transition scenario is very likely to become the reality in the 21st century. To prevent major war between the PRC and the U.S. which could easily escalate to the World War III and to maintain regional stability in the 21st century, therefore, the current hegemonic power should make every effort to keep preponderance in power over any potential challenger. For the United States one way of managing to maintain preponderance in power is to keep status quo in it5 alliance policy, i.e., to maintain it5 military ties with the European allies through North Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO), with Japan, and with Korea. That is, the United States - Japan and the U.S. - Korea alliance ties are very important for the regional stability. As long as the United States keeps its ties both with Japan and with Korea, any potential challenger including China must be uneasy about challenging the United States and it5 allies. So far as Japan keeps it5 ties with the U.S., one of the potential challengers, Russia, will be in no position to challenge the U.S. - Japan alliance, either. South Korea or unified Korea will be indispensable for both the United States and Japan's security structure in the 21st century. Unified Korea alone may not have enough capabilities to pause any threat against any neighboring country. However, by allying with the U.S. unified Korea will playa crucial role on suppressing the possibility of the advent of the non-democratic regional hegemon and thus keeping democratic institutions in the region. Maintaining and spreading democracy in the region are two of the most important goals of the United States and Japan. So, for both countries the U. S. alliance ties with Korea even after Korea is unified match very well with their national interests. In case the U.S. decides to bandwagon to the rising revisionist China, Korea is highly likely to bandwagon to the PRC as well The U.S. policy of isolationism and of bandwagoning to the PRC will then encourage Japan's militarism and this kind of situation could lead to regional hegemonic war between the PRC and Japan. So, to prevent this kind of scenario from becoming the reality, Japan will need strong ties both with the U.S. and with Korea. If the PRC fails to overtake the U.S. in its national capabilities, then the hegemonic stability scenario is most likely to become the reality. In this case, the U.S. will be very likely to maintain the status quo in its alliance policy. Although keeping Japan as its only regional ally may be enough for its regional security structure, the U.S. will be better off not severing ties with Korea because in three other scenarios Korea will always be the strategically important partner for the U.S. In case China fails to catch up with the U.S. and the U.S. decides to take the policy of splendid isolation in the region, Korea's role will become very important. Surrounded by the balance of power system among three regional powers - the PRC, Japan and Russia, and the U.S. which will play the role of the balancer, Korea may remain as a buffer state. Or Korea could even play the role of the pivotal partner. Theoretically, the balance of power system is a very unstable system. That is, although there is no war among competing powers at the moment a slight tip of the balance among them would lead to major conflict. So, all these powers would be interested in having good relations with relatively weak Korea. In any coalition formation, the greater the necessity to include a player in a coalition in order to make it a winning one, the greater that players pivotal role. Despite the pivotal players relatively small resource base,

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 21세기 동아시아 안보질서 시나리오

Ⅲ. 동아시아 안보환경과 여론

Ⅳ. 결론:한국의 안보전략