시계열 예측 모델을 활용한 암호화폐 투자 전략 개발

• 영문명: Developing Cryptocurrency Trading Strategies with Time Series Forecasting Model
• 발행기관: 한국산업경영시스템학회
• 저자명: 김현선 안재준
• 간행물 정보: 『산업경영시스템학회지』제46권 제4호, 152~159쪽, 전체 8쪽
• 주제분류: 공학 > 산업공학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2023.12.31

영문 초록

This study endeavors to enrich investment prospects in cryptocurrency by establishing a rationale for investment decisions. The primary objective involves evaluating the predictability of four prominent cryptocurrencies – Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and EOS – and scrutinizing the efficacy of trading strategies developed based on the prediction model. To identify the most effective prediction model for each cryptocurrency annually, we employed three methodologies – AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Prophet – representing traditional statistics and artificial intelligence. These methods were applied across diverse periods and time intervals. The result suggested that Prophet trained on the previous 28 days' price history at 15-minute intervals generally yielded the highest performance. The results were validated through a random selection of 100 days (20 target dates per year) spanning from January 1st, 2018, to December 31st, 2022. The trading strategies were formulated based on the optimal-performing prediction model, grounded in the simple principle of assigning greater weight to more predictable assets. When the forecasting model indicates an upward trend, it is recommended to acquire the cryptocurrency with the investment amount determined by its performance. Experimental results consistently demonstrated that the proposed trading strategy yields higher returns compared to an equal portfolio employing a buy-and-hold strategy. The cryptocurrency trading model introduced in this paper carries two significant implications. Firstly, it facilitates the evolution of cryptocurrencies from speculative assets to investment instruments. Secondly, it plays a crucial role in advancing deep learning- based investment strategies by providing sound evidence for portfolio allocation. This addresses the black box issue, a notable weakness in deep learning, offering increased transparency to the model.

목차

1. 서론

2. 선행연구

3. 연구방법

4. 실증 분석

5. 결론

키워드

Cryptocurrency Time series Analysis Price forecasting Trading Strategy