중동지역 안보정세 개입변수를 활용한 중동 지역 방산물자 수입액에 대한 예측 연구

• 영문명: Forecasting Defense Industry Imports in Middle-East under the Changing International Security Circumstances
• 발행기관: 한국이슬람학회
• 저자명: 조성환
• 간행물 정보: 『한국이슬람학회논총』제33권 2호, 131~155쪽, 전체 25쪽
• 주제분류: 인문학 > 종교학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2023.06.30

영문 초록

This research forecasted statistically annual arms import amount among such rogue states as Iran, Iraq, Libya and Syria in the middle east region. A rogue state means that a nation or state regarded as breaking international law and posing a threat to the international security. This term has been designated and used by US state department. This research forecasted annual arms import until 2025 based on the 60 year annual data from 1961 to 2021. It was expected that this research result would provide basic information to Republic of Korea which could expand its arms export against middle-east countries because arms export would be made through collaborative efforts among between public and private sector. According to ARIMA forecast, it was proven arms import amount would be 453 million in 2022, 516 million in 2023 and 641 million USD in 2025 even though the amount was dropped recently due to COVID-19. However, it was also estimated that the maximum arms import amount could be around 2.075 billion in 2023 and about 2.877 billion in 2025. That is, it is proven the middle-east has a high potential of rapid market growth and is a very attractive region where Republic of Korea could gradually expand its arms export.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 본론

Ⅲ. 결론

키워드

예측분석 개입변수 방위산업 국제안보상황 중동지역 Statistical Forecast Intervention Variable Defense Industry International Security Circumstances Middle-East Region