주거용 전기사용량을 활용한 빈집추정 및 예측에 관한 연구

• 영문명: A Study on the Estimation and Prediction of Empty Houses Using Residential Electricity Consumption
• 발행기관: 한국지역개발학회
• 저자명: 김민규 최열
• 간행물 정보: 『한국지역개발학회지』제34권 제5호, 95~114쪽, 전체 20쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 지역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2022.12.31

영문 초록

Researcher, Busan Development Institute ･ Professor, Pusan National University Abstract: As the vacant house problem is causing various factors such as economic insecurity and crime in the region, it can adversely affect urban development and cause a lot of effects on the quality of life of residents. However, not only is the data construction on empty houses somewhat insufficient, but due to its low effectiveness, clear data construction improvement measures are needed. In order to reconstruct the situation of empty houses, this study estimates the number of empty houses, predicts the number of empty houses in the future as time series data, and derives implications for the problem of empty houses. Based on the empty house estimation method for Busan and Gyeongsangnam-do, this study estimates the number of empty houses in 60 cycles from 2012 to 2020 through residential electric energy usage and proposes the predictive power of empty houses over the next five years using the SARIMA. As a result, there is a slight difference every month in all case areas, but the number of vacant houses is increasing in the long run. In addition, in terms of model suitability, the adequacy was demonstrated by showing reliability in the predictive power in the seasonal ARIMA model rather than the exponential smoothing method. Based on this, policy points on the issue of vacant houses were presented, and it is expected that the frequency of vacant houses can be subdivided for each region in the future to expand the impact on the occurrence of vacant houses along with the population structure.

목차

1. 서론

2. 이론적 고찰

3. 연구방법

4. 연구결과

5. 결론 및 제언

참고문헌

키워드

빈집 전기사용량 계절자기회귀이동평균모형 지수평활법 Vacant House Electricity Consumption SARIMA Smoothing Models