Earnings Forecasts and Firm Characteristics in the Wholesale and Retail Industries

• 영문명: Earnings Forecasts and Firm Characteristics in the Wholesale and Retail Industries
• 발행기관: 한국유통과학회
• 저자명: Seung-Yeon LIM
• 간행물 정보: 『유통과학연구(JDS)』제20권 제12호, 117~123쪽, 전체 7쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2022.12.31

영문 초록

Purpose: This study investigates the relationship between earnings forecasts estimated from a cross-sectional earnings forecast model and firm characteristics such as firm size, sales volatility, and earnings volatility. Research design, data and methodology: The association between earnings forecasts and the aforementioned firm characteristics is examined using 214 firm-year observations with analyst following and 848 firm-year observations without analyst following for the period of 2011-2019. I estimate future earnings using a cross-sectional earnings forecast model, and then compare these model-based earnings forecasts with analysts’ earnings forecasts in terms of forecast bias and forecast accuracy. The earnings forecast bias and accuracy are regressed on firm size, sales volatility, and earnings volatility. Results: For a sample with analyst following, I find that the model-based earnings forecasts are more accurate as the firm size is larger, whereas the analysts’ earnings forecasts are less biased and more accurate as the firm size is larger. However, for a sample without analyst following, I find that the model-based earnings forecasts are more pessimistic and less accurate as firms’ past earnings are more volatile. Conclusions: Although model-based earnings forecasts are useful for evaluating firms without analyst following, their accuracy depends on the firms’ earnings volatility.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Literature Review and Research Hypothesis

3. Research Design

4. Results and Discussion

5. Conclusions

References

키워드

Analyst Forecasts Cross-Sectional Earnings Model Model-Based Earnings Forecasts Forecast Bias Forecast Accuracy