The Impact of Global Uncertainty Shocks on Macroeconomics: The Case of Vietnam

• 영문명: The Impact of Global Uncertainty Shocks on Macroeconomics: The Case of Vietnam
• 발행기관: 한국유통과학회
• 저자명: Ha Hong TRAN Vinh Thi Hong NGUYEN Nam Hoang TRINH
• 간행물 정보: 『The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business(JAFEB)』Vol. 9 No.9, 263~269쪽, 전체 7쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2022.10.31

영문 초록

The global financial crisis of 2008–2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic that started in 2019 along with the slow and unstable recovery of the global economy have raised concerns about the impact of global uncertainty on the macroeconomics of the countries. The paper used the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to examine the impact of global uncertainty shocks on Vietnam’s economy from the period 2008–2022. We found that Vietnam’s output dropped following the shock of global uncertainty, the peak was in the third month, and lasted for one year. Inflation in Vietnam had a rapid downturn in the first month, peaked in the seventh month, and took a long time to cease. When the economy experienced the shock of increased global uncertainty, Vietnam’s policy interest rate was adjusted downward. Additionally, we included a long-term interest rate to consider the overall impact of monetary policy into account. A decreasing trend was also found with this rate. The global uncertainty shock effects acted as the aggregate demand shocks, reducing output and inflation as the uncertainty increases and vice versa, thus monetary policy can be used to regulate Vietnam’s economy to deal with negative shocks without the trade-offs between output and inflation as aggregate supply shocks.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Literature Review

3. Methodology

4. Results and Discussion

5. Conclusion

References

키워드

Uncertainty Macroeconomics Monetary Policy SVAR