학술논문
제주 양식넙치 산지가격 예측모형 간 예측력 비교 및 평가
이용수 32
- 영문명
- Evaluation and Comparison of the Forecasting Power among Forecasting Models of Jeju Oliver Flounder Producer Price
- 발행기관
- 한국해양비즈니스학회
- 저자명
- 남종오 전용한
- 간행물 정보
- 『해양비즈니스』제51호, 37~57쪽, 전체 21쪽
- 주제분류
- 경제경영 > 경영학
- 파일형태
- 발행일자
- 2022.04.30
5,320원
구매일시로부터 72시간 이내에 다운로드 가능합니다.
이 학술논문 정보는 (주)교보문고와 각 발행기관 사이에 저작물 이용 계약이 체결된 것으로, 교보문고를 통해 제공되고 있습니다.
국문 초록
영문 초록
The purpose of this study is to compare forecasting power among forecasting models of the Jeju aquaculture olive flounder production price and to present models with superior forecasting power. It also aims to help producers and policy authorities make political decisions such as purchasing and stockpiling projects. Accordingly, the ARMA model composed of the Jeju aquaculture olive flounder production price, and the ARMAX and VAR models including the price of Jeju and Wando were used, and the forecasting power among these models was compared by the MDM test. For the analysis, the producer prices of Jeju and Wando were analyzed as stable time series data without a unit root. Through the Granger causality test, the test showed that the production price of Wando in 1 and 2 months ago influenced Jeju price. Based on the redundant variables, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation tests, ARMA (1,0), ARMA(0,2), ARMA(3,1), ARMAX(1,0), VAR(1) and VAR(2) models were selected as forecasting models for Jeju aquaculture olive flounder production prices. Through the MDM test, the ARMA(1,0) model with the smallest forecasting error and the five models had the same forecasting power in the MSE standard, and the forecasting power of ARMA(1,0), ARMA(3,1) and ARMA(0,2) model was superior in MAE criteria. Therefore, if producers and policy authorities establish management plans and policies related to price forecasting information, this analysis will help alleviate price volatility in the long run.
목차
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 연구 방법
Ⅲ. 연구 결과
Ⅳ. 결론
참고문헌
키워드
해당간행물 수록 논문
참고문헌
관련논문
경제경영 > 경영학분야 BEST
더보기경제경영 > 경영학분야 NEW
- 글로벌경영학회지 제21권 제2호 목차
- 인공지능기반 사전학습언어모델 적용방안에 관한 연구
- In Pursuit of Mutual Benefit: Applying the Extended Diamond Model to the US-China Trade Dispute
최근 이용한 논문
교보eBook 첫 방문을 환영 합니다!
신규가입 혜택 지급이 완료 되었습니다.
바로 사용 가능한 교보e캐시 1,000원 (유효기간 7일)
지금 바로 교보eBook의 다양한 콘텐츠를 이용해 보세요!