Is It Possible to Achieve IMO Carbon Emission Reduction Targets at the Current Pace of Technological Progress?*

• 발행기관: 한국무역학회
• 저자명: Gun-Woo Choi Heesung Yun Soo-Jin Hwang
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of Korea Trade (JKT)』Vol.26 No.1, 113~125쪽, 전체 13쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2022.02.28

영문 초록

Purpose – The primary purpose of this study is to verify whether the target set out by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for reducing carbon emissions from ships can be achieved by quantitatively analyzing the trends in technological advances of fuel oil consumption in the container shipping market. To achieve this purpose, several scenarios are designed considering various options such as eco-friendly fuels, low-speed operation, and the growth in ship size. Design/methodology – The vessel size and speed used in prior studies are utilized to estimate the fuel oil consumption of container ships and the pace of technological progress and Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) regulations are added. A database of 5,260 container ships, as of 2019, is used for multiple linear regression and quantile regression analyses. Findings – The fuel oil consumption of vessels is predominantly affected by their speed, followed by their size, and the annual technological progress is estimated to be 0.57%. As the quantile increases, the influence of ship size and pace of technological progress increases, while the influence of speed and coefficient of EEDI variables decreases. Originality/value – The conservative estimation of carbon emission drawn by a quantitative analysis of the technological progress concerning the fuel efficiency of container vessels shows that it is not possible to achieve IMO targets. Therefore, innovative efforts beyond the current scope of technological progress are required.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Literature Review on Carbon Emission in the Shipping Sector

3. Estimation of Technological Progress (Methodology)

4. Estimation of Carbon Emissions by Container Fleet

5. Conclusion

References

키워드

Carbon Emissions Container Technological Progress IMO