사인함수를 이용한 한육우 사육두수 전망식 개발 연구

• 영문명: A Study on the Development of a Predictive Model for the Number of Korean Cattle using a Sine Function
• 발행기관: 한국농식품정책학회
• 저자명: 안미란(Meilan An) 지인배(Inbae Ji)
• 간행물 정보: 『농업경영.정책연구』농업경영·정책연구 49권 1호, 1~14쪽, 전체 14쪽
• 주제분류: 농수해양 > 식품과학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2022.03.30

영문 초록

Due to the biological characteristics of Korean beef cattle, the breeding period is long, so the number of breeding heads repeats increase and decrease. So they have a certain breeding cycle. In this study, we develop a model using a sine function that can reflect these characteristics of the Korean breeding cycle. Recently, the Korean beef cattle industry is undergoing structural changes such as scale-up, specialization, and increase in integrated breeding, and this has been reflected in the model. The explanatory power of the model was 0.92, which was very high, and the MAPE was 2.38%, indicating that the model had excellent predictive power. As a result of forecasting the number of Korean beef cattle, it is predicted that it will gradually increase from 3.4 million in 2021, reach the maximum level of about 3.85 million in 2026, and then decrease. The results of this study are expected to be useful for resolving the supply and demand instability in the Korean beef cattle market and the management risk of farms.

목차

Ⅰ. 서 론

Ⅱ. 모형설계 및 분석자료

Ⅲ. 분석결과 및 예측력 검증

Ⅳ. 한육우 사육두수 전망

Ⅴ. 요약 및 결론

참고문헌

키워드

Cattle Cycle Korean Cattle Sine Function Structural Change Supply Model