The Short-run and Long-run Dynamics Between Liquidity and Real Output Growth: An Empirical Study in Indonesia

• 발행기관: 한국유통과학회
• 저자명: Sapto JUMONO Joel Faruk SOFYAN Sugiyanto SUGIYANTO Chajar Matari Fath MALA
• 간행물 정보: 『The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business(JAFEB)』Vol. 8 No.5, 595~605쪽, 전체 11쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2021.05.30

영문 초록

The objectives of this research are to see if the phenomena of “demand following” and “supply leading” exist in the business cycle, as well as to look at how liquidity and output react to changes in credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and growth rate of real national output. Employing quarterly data of Maluku and North Maluku (2008–2019), this study utilizes VAR/VECM for inferential analysis. This research found three important findings. First, liquidity and output growth influenced each other in the long run. Second, the determinants of output growth for Maluku are liquidity, investment-saving gap, and inflation, while the determinants of liquidity are output-growth, the gap of investment-saving, and inflation. Third, the determinants of output growth for North Maluku are liquidity, credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and the national output-growth, while the determinants of liquidity are output-growth, credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and national output-growth. The findings of this study supported the hypothesis of demand following and supply leading theory in the Maluku and North Maluku business cycles. This study concludes that economic development would improve if supported by liquidity adequacy through increased deposit growth.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Literature Review

3. Data and Methodology

4. Results and Discussion

5. Conclusion and Implications

키워드

Real Output Growth Liquidity Investment Savings Inflation Exchange Rate