A Study on the Numerical Approach for Industrial Life Cycle: Empirical Evidence from Korea

• 발행기관: 한국유통과학회
• 저자명: Kangsun LEE Kyujin CHOI Daemyeong CHO
• 간행물 정보: 『The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business(JAFEB)』Vol. 8 No.5, 667~678쪽, 전체 12쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2021.05.30

영문 초록

The industrial life cycle theory was extended to the product life cycle theory and the corporate life cycle theory, but a conceptual life cycle was presented, and quantitative empirical evidence for this was insufficient. It is intended to improve appropriate resource planning and resource allocation by quantitatively predicting the industrial cycle and its position (age) in the cycle. Human resources, tangible assets, and industrial output analysis were conducted based on 28 years of actual data of 39 industries in Korea by applying the Gompertz model, which is a population ecology prediction model. By predicting with the Gompertz model, the coefficient of determination R2 value was 97% or more, confirming the high suitability with the actual cumulative sales value of the industry. A numerical model for calculating the life cycle of each industry, calculating the saturation of input resources for each industry, and diagnosing the financial stability of the industry was presented. These results will contribute to the decision-making of industrial policy officers for budget planning appropriately for each stage of industry development. Future research will apply the numerical model of this study to foreign national industries, complete an inter-industry convergence diagnostic model (e.g. ease of convergence, suitability of convergence, etc.) for renewal of fading industries.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Theoretical Background and Literature Review

3. Research Method

4. Analysis and Results

5. Conclusion

키워드

Industrial Life Cycle Product Life Cycle Corporate Life Cycle Gompertz Model Convergence Diagnosis