학술논문
State-Owned Enterprises and Debt Sustainability Analysis
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- 영문명
- 발행기관
- 한국유통과학회
- 저자명
- Benno Ferrarini Marthe Hinojales
- 간행물 정보
- 『The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business(JAFEB)』Vol. 6 No.1, 91~105쪽, 전체 15쪽
- 주제분류
- 경제경영 > 경제학
- 파일형태
- 발행일자
- 2019.01.31
무료
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국문 초록
영문 초록
The paper aims to combine balance sheet analysis at the firm level with the International Monetary Fund’s public debt sustainability assessment framework to assess state-owned enterprises’ (SOE) leverage as a contingent liability to the public sector. Based on company data and the interest coverage ratio as a measure of debt at risk, aggregate baseline scenarios are projected to gauge the magnitude of SOE debt as a contingency. SOE’s financial and debt ratios are first bootstrapped to generate firm-level distributions and then averaged into a fan chart of the economy-wide SOE contingent liability. Applied to the People’s Republic of China as an example, the study finds that by the end of 2015 SOE leverage had grown to a substantial liability. However arbitrary the assumptions underlying these projections, it would appear that even if authorities had to mop up as much as 20% of SOE debt at risk gone bad, this would have been manageable at roughly 2.7% of the gross domestic product in 2016 or 5.5% by 2021. This projection framework is fully amenable to alternative assumptions and settings, which makes it a useful analytical tool to monitor contingent liabilities from non-financial corporate debt that have been building in emerging and advanced economies alike.
목차
1. Introduction
2. Debt Sustainability Analysis with SOE Contingent Liabilities
3. State-Owned Enterprise Debt at Risk: Data Sources and Definitions
4. State-Owned Enterprise Contingent Liabilities Projections and Fan Charts
5. Conclusion
References
Appendix 1: Assumptions Underlying Baseline and Scenario Projections
Appendix 2: Contingent Liability Baseline and Fan Charts By Sectors (% of GDP)
Appendix 3: Debt Dynamics in the IMF Debt Sustainability Framework for Market-Access Countries
키워드
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