The Effect of External Shocks on Food Price in Indonesia: A VECM Analysis

• 발행기관: 한국유통과학회
• 저자명: Ari Nurvitasari Nasrudin
• 간행물 정보: 『산경연구논집(JIDB)』Volume.8 No.7, 7~12쪽, 전체 6쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2017.12.30

영문 초록

Purpose – This research examines the short-run and long-run effect of external shocks (oil price and exchange rate) on domestic food price in Indonesia. Research design, data, and methodology – Three variables are used in this research. The variables are food price index, Rupiah’s exchange rate of Indonesia, and crude oil price from 1998 until 2015 using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Results - The increasing of oil price and the depreciation of Rupiah’s rate push the domestic food price in long-run, but do not impact significantly in short- term . The response of food price to oil prices shock and exchange rate shock are positive and persistent throughout the entire sample period. The exchange rate and oil price shocks have a small proportion explaining for the fluctuations of food price index but increasing over time. Conclusions - The policymaker should concern on solving the problem of oil price increase and depreciation of exchange rate on Indonesia’s food price as they are important factors that can affect the price stability. The government should not rely on food imports because the price is strongly influenced by the movements in the exchange rate.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Literature Review

3. Data and Methodology

4. Unit Root Test

5. Result

6. Conclusion

키워드

Food Price Oil Price External Shock VECM Analysis