학술논문
The Global Pandemic, Policy Space and Fiscal Rules to Achieve Stronger Stabilization Policies
이용수 4
- 영문명
- 발행기관
- 서울대학교 경제연구소
- 저자명
- Michael M. Hutchison
- 간행물 정보
- 『Seoul Journal of Economics』Seoul Journal of Economics Volume 33 No.3, 307~331쪽, 전체 25쪽
- 주제분류
- 경제경영 > 경제학
- 파일형태
- 발행일자
- 2020.08.30
5,800원
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국문 초록
영문 초록
The world economy was slowing prior to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. The slowdown began after a record-long period of expansion marked with record lows in unemployment and strong economic indicators along most dimensions. Even at a high point of the business cycle, however, “depression style” economic policies of very low or zero policy interest rates and large budget deficits were being followed in many countries—partly due to the lingering effects of the Great Recession and partly due the longstanding problem of “deficit bias” in fiscal policy. Fiscal responses to the Covid-19 shock in the form of wage support, business loans and other programs in 2020 were substantial and necessary but, following already large fiscal deficits and growing government debt, have aggravated the problem of long-term fiscal solvency. In some cases, concerns over record peacetime budget deficits constrained government’s willingness to pursue further rounds of fiscal stimulus as the Covid-19 crisis deepened. This article argues that deficit bias constrained discretionary fiscal policy actions arises from political economy factors and demonstrates that fiscal rules are an important instrument to mitigate deficit bias and restore countries to longer-term solvency. Countries with strong fiscal rules had much better fiscal and debt positions prior to the Great Financial Crisis, allowing them in turn to pursue much more stimulative fiscal policies in response to the crisis. The same situation faced policy makers at the onset of the pandemic economic crisis-- those with strong fiscal rules were in a much better position to provide large fiscal responses to support the economy without endangering national debt solvency. Facilitating long-term fiscal solvency and allowing for larger discretionary fiscal actions in crisis situations provides a strong argument for the strengthening and enforcement of fiscal rules around the world.
목차
I. Introduction
II. The Way We Were
III. The COVID-19 Pandemic as an Economic Shock, Policy Responses and Fiscal Solvency
IV. Fiscal Rules as a Medium-Term Policy Framework
V. Conclusion
References
해당간행물 수록 논문
- Global Business and Financial Cycles: A Tale of Two Capital Account Regimes
- The Global Pandemic, Policy Space and Fiscal Rules to Achieve Stronger Stabilization Policies
- The Global Role of the United States and China
- Response of Bank Loans to the Bank of Japan’s Quantitative and Qualitative Easing Policy: A Panel Data Analysis
- Plausibility of Local Currency Contribution to the CMIM
- The Causes of Trade Tensions and their Consequences for Financial Stability
- Korea’s Patterns of Trade
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