CGE 모형을 이용한 미･중 무역마찰에 따른 농업부문 영향 분석

• 영문명: The Impact of the U.S.-China Trade Dispute on the Korean Agricultural Market Using Computational General Equilibrium Model
• 발행기관: 한국농식품정책학회
• 저자명: 순병민(Byung Min Soon) 문한필(Hanpil Moon) 이수환(Suhwan Lee)
• 간행물 정보: 『농업경영.정책연구』농업경영·정책연구 47권 1호, 89~109쪽, 전체 21쪽
• 주제분류: 농수해양 > 식품과학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2020.03.31

영문 초록

This study examines the impact of the U.S. and China trade dispute on the Korean agricultural market. We use the Global Trade Analysis Policy (GTAP) model and set two scenarios: (1) retaliatory scenario and (2) Armington assumption scenario. The results show that Chinese imports for soybean, pork, fruit, and sorghum are reduced because of Chinese retaliatory tariff to the U.S. As reducing in Chinese imports, U.S. agricultural exports are also reduced. Korea has direct and indirect effect from the U.S. and China trade dispute. Especially, imports of soybean and pork, which China imposes a large tariff, are increased in Korea. When imperfect substitute relation eases off, the impact of the U.S. and China trade dispute on the Korean agricultural market would be larger.

목차

Ⅰ. 서 론

Ⅱ. 미･중 무역마찰 경과 및 한국과 미･중 간 농산물 교역 현황

Ⅲ. 분석 방법

Ⅳ. 결 과

Ⅴ. 요약 및 결론

참고문헌

키워드

Armington Elasticity Computational General Equilibrium Model GTAP U.S.-China Trade Dispute