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• 영문명: Determinants of the Current Account after the Global Financial Crisis: The Cases of Korea and Japan
• 발행기관: 한국무역연구원
• 저자명: 유재원(Jai-Won Ryou):이기성(Ki-Seong Lee)
• 간행물 정보: 『무역연구』제13권 제5호, 655~674쪽, 전체 20쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2017.10.31

영문 초록

This paper analyzes how the determinants of the current account balance in Korea and Japan have changed after the global financial crisis, specifically from the focal point of exchange rates. Using a structural vector autoregressive model, we compare the two sample periods, 2000:01-2009:06 and 2009:07-2016:12. Our analysis shows that the responses of current account to structural shocks in both countries were similar before the crisis, but considerably changed since then. The global import volume and the price of crude oil continue to play significant roles in determining the current account balance in Korea and Japan. However, the influence of real exchange rate, of its own as well as of the counterpart, significantly decreased since the global financial crisis. The industrial production shock appears to have a positive impact on the current account, implying that the recent current account surplus would be a mirror image of the economic recession. Interestingly, it is unclear whether the current account surplus results in depreciation of its own currency. Exchange rates appear to be sensitive to capital flow rather than to the current account balance. To cope with economic crisis, many countries are lured to adopt the protectionist measures. An excessive current account surplus is highly likely to spill into trade friction. Therefore, policymakers should pay more attention towards achieving internal balance of growth and employment, and to stabilizing exchange rate fluctuation through prevention of abrupt changes in capital flows.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 문헌검토

Ⅲ. 분석모형

Ⅳ. 실증분석

Ⅴ. 결론

키워드

Current Account Global Financial Crisis Structural Vector Autoregressive Model