Effects of the US Ethanol Mandates on Corn, Ethanol and Oil Prices

• 영문명: Effects of the US Ethanol Mandates on Corn, Ethanol and Oil Prices
• 발행기관: 한국농식품정책학회
• 저자명: Jeong Tae Oh Doo Bong Han
• 간행물 정보: 『농업경영.정책연구』농업경영·정책연구 41권 3호, 625~642쪽, 전체 18쪽
• 주제분류: 농수해양 > 식품과학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2014.09.30

영문 초록

This paper examines the effects of ethanol mandates on corn, ethanol and oil prices through time series modeling. The empirical results suggest that corn price movements were independent of oil price before the August 8, 2005 imposition of the first ethanol mandate (Period I). This study also concludes that the effects of the first ethanol mandate were not significant from August 8, 2005 to December 18, 2007. However, a long-run relationship among oil, corn and ethanol prices was found after the imposition of the second ethanol mandate on December 19, 2007 (Period III), although shortrun relationships were found in periods I and II. Ethanol mandates exerted a significant influence in Period III since a large proportion of ethanol price fluctuations were explained by corn and oil prices. In addition, dynamics among oil, corn and ethanol prices exhibited strong long-run relationships between oil and ethanol prices and between corn and ethanol prices, but there was no close relationship between corn and oil prices. Therefore, the mandates’ effect was more pronounced after the second (December 2007). Furthermore, it is expected that ethanol mandates will be a major threat to food security in the future without substantial technological innovation.

목차

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Preliminary Data and Model Analysis

Ⅲ. Empirical Results of Ethanol Mandates

Ⅳ. Conclusion

키워드

Ethanol Mandates Regime Changes Corn Price Ethanol Price Oil Price