플랜트 프로젝트 일정위험 예외상황 예측 및 평가

• 영문명: Prediction and Evaluation of Schedule Exceptions on the EPC Projects of Overseas Plants
• 발행기관: 한국산업경영시스템학회
• 저자명: 성홍석(Hongsuk Sung) 정종윤(Jong-yun Jung) 박철순(Chulsoon Park)
• 간행물 정보: 『산업경영시스템학회지』제39권 제4호, 72~80쪽, 전체 9쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경영학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2016.12.30

영문 초록

The market size of plant projects in overseas is so large that domestic EPC project contractors are actively seeking the overseas projects and then trying to meet completion plans since successful fulfillment of these projects can provide great opportunities for them to expand into new foreign markets. International EPC projects involve all of the uncertainties common to domestic projects as well as uncertainties specific to foreign projects including marine transportation, customs, regulations, nationality, culture and so on. When overseas project gets off-schedule, the resulting uncertainty may trigger unexpected exceptions and then critical effects to the project performance. It usually require much more time and costs to encounter these exceptions in foreign sites compared to domestic project sites. Therefore, an exception handling approach is required to manage exceptions effectively for successful project progress in foreign project sites. In this research, we proposed a methodology for prediction and evaluation of exceptions caused by risks in international EPC projects based on sensitivity analysis and Bayesian Networks. First, we identified project schedule risks and related exceptions, which may meet during the fulfillment of foreign EPC projects that is performed in a sequence of engineering, procurement, preparatory manufacture, foreign shipping, construction, inspection and modification activities, and affect project performance, using literature review and expert interviews. The impact of exceptions to the schedule delay were also identified. Second, we proposed a methodology to predict the occurrence of exceptions caused by project risks and evaluate them. Using sensitivity analysis, we can identify activities that critically affect schedule delay and need to focus by priority. Then, we use Bayesian Networks to predict and evaluate exceptions. Third, we applied the proposed methodology to an international EPC project example to validate the proposed approach. Finally, we concluded the research with the further research topics. We expect that the proposed approach can be extended to apply in exception management in project management.

목차

1. 연구배경

2. 관련 연구

3. 해외 플랜트 EPC 프로젝트의 일정 위험요소및 위험관리

4. 베이지안 네트워크 기반의 일정위험요소 및예외상황 관리

5. 사례연구를 통한 검증

6. 결론 및 추후연구

키워드

EPC Project Exception Prediction Sensitivity Analysis Bayesian Network