The Influence of Presidential Approval on Vote Choice in U.S. Presidential Primaries: How does presidential approval affect the voting behavior of opposition party supporters?

• 발행기관: 한국아메리카학회
• 저자명: Jeong Hun Min
• 간행물 정보: 『미국학논집』제48집 1호, 177~197쪽, 전체 21쪽
• 주제분류: 인문학 > 기타인문학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2016.05.30

영문 초록

This study examines how presidential approval affects opposition party supporters' vote choices in the U.S. presidential nomination elections. Opposition party supporters who disapprove of the incumbent president are more likely to support a candidate they judge as having a chance of defeating the incumbent candidate in November of the election year. In addition, they are likely to vote strategically by increasing their support for the front-runner as the nomination contests progress. To empirically test these arguments, this study analyzes how presidential approval affected vote choices in the 2004 and 1984 Democratic presidential primaries using the 2004 and 1984 Democratic presidential primary exit poll data. The results of the analysis suggest that presidential approval affects the voting behavior of opposition party supporters by motivating them to support a candidate who could defeat the incumbent candidate in November and that opposition party supporters who disapprove of the incumbent president use the front-runner status as a cue to determine which candidate could defeat the incumbent candidate.

목차

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Presidential Approval and Voting Behavior in Presidential Primaries

Ⅲ. The 2004 & 1984 U.S. Democratic Presidential Primaries

Ⅳ. Research Design

Ⅴ. Results

Ⅵ. Conclusion

Works Cited

Abstract

키워드

Presidential Primaries Presidential Approval Opposition Party Supporters Electability Strategic Voting