양파 출하시기 도매가격 예측모형 연구

• 영문명: A Study on Onion Wholesale Price Forecasting Model
• 발행기관: 한국농촌지도학회
• 저자명: 남국현(Kuk-Hyun Nam) 최영찬(Young-Chan Choe)
• 간행물 정보: 『농촌지도와 개발』22권 4호, 423~434쪽, 전체 12쪽
• 주제분류: 농수해양 > 기타농수해양
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2015.12.31

영문 초록

This paper predicts the onion’s cultivation areas, yields per unit area, and wholesale prices during ship dates by using wholesale price data from the Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation, the production data from the Statistics Korea, and the weather data from the Korea Meteorological Administration with an ARDL model. By analyzing the data of wholesale price, rural household income and rural total earnings, onion cultivation areas in 2015 are estimated to be 21,035, 17,774 and 20,557(ha). In addition, onion yields per unit area of South Jeolla Province, North Gyeongsang Province, South Gyeongsang Province, Jeju Island, and the whole country in 2015 are estimated to be 5,980, 6,493, 6,543, 6,614, 6,139 (kg/10a) respectively. By using onion production’s predictive value found from onion’s cultivation areas and yields per unit area in 2015, the onion’s wholesale prices in June are estimated to be 780 won, 1,100 won, and 820 won for each model. Predicted monthly price after the onion’s ship dates is analyzed to exceed 1,000 won after August.

목차

1. 서 론

2. 양파 도매가격과 생산량, 재배면적, 단수의 시계열 추이

3. 자료 및 분석방법

4. 분석 결과

5. 결 론

키워드

cultivation areas yields price forecasting onion