IT 버블과 녹색산업 성공전략

• 영문명: Will Green Technology bring another bubble economy?
• 발행기관: 한국경제연구원
• 저자명: 이병태(Byungtae Lee)
• 간행물 정보: 『한국경제연구원 연구보고서』연구보고서 2011-04-01, 109~191쪽, 전체 83쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2011.01.28

영문 초록

The Korean government has pushed the very ambitious “green growth” strategy which has generates many government initiatives. There has been speculation that these government drives may trigger a new “green” bubble economy like the recent dot.com bubble. This research examines whether this concern may be realized or not. In order to investigate, first we characterize roles and impact of bubble. Only negative impacts of bubble economy have been frequently cited as we see in the global finance crisis which is believed to have been triggered by bubble in real estate market. The bubble burst of dotcom fever is another example. However, there are many positive roles that bubble economy brings. History shows that there are radical industrial structural changes with new technologies after bubbles. For instance, IT, especially, Web technology triggered dotcom bubble, which resulted in e-business era and broad impacts in business and our lives. Of course there have been bubbles without such innovative technologies such as the well-known tulip bubble in Netherlands. When bubble precedes industrial revolution, it supplies capital to technological innovation and gathers consumers’ attention. That will make market grow faster. This paper summarize characteristics of the so-called “momentum technology” that triggers bubble but eventually industrial revolution. They are (ⅰ) accelerating speed of production and diffusion of technology, (ⅱ) economies of scale, and (ⅲ) continuous innovation. Through these characteristics, consumers can enjoy lowering cost of technology. However, emerging green technologies do not exhibit such characteristics. Hence, there will be no “natural” momentum technology. On the other hand, to create a bubble economy, there must be a market feedback mechanism in capital market that provides market signal of price inflation so that more investors enter the market. However, currently there is no such market for green technology. While new “green technologies” do not have economical advantage or expectation to achieve that in near future, new regulatory compliance or government policies to curb CO₂ may reduce gap in cost or even reverse the price disadvantage against the incumbent technology. However, the economic gap seems too big for such possibilities. Another possibility of bubble creation is massive investment by government or incentives toward that direction. In late 90’s Korean government policy to promote new tech startups is a good example. We review political and socio-economic factors and environment that enabled such aggressive government policies. We show that there is no analogy to green technology. Korean government could pursue IT initiatives with already widely accepted belief on IT as the infrastructure of new economy. However, there is no such consensus on green technology yet. In addition, Korean government could promote new startups (dotcom’s) as a solution to the foreign currency crisis Korean economy had in the mid-90’s. It was considered as an alternative to Jaebeol oriented economy which was attributed as one of causes of the crisis. However, there is no such enabling factors to government massive drives toward green technology investment. We conclude that green technology and the investment for that will be very slow evolution rather than revolution.

목차

Ⅰ. 서문

Ⅱ. 녹색기술은 버블인가

Ⅲ. 정부 IT 정책과 닷컴 버블을 통해 본 녹색기술의 정부주도의 버블 가능성

Ⅳ. 현 정부의 녹색성장 정책 분석

Ⅴ. 녹색기술 산업화 유효 전략

참고문헌

Abstract