수리 가능 발전기 시스템의 고장추세 분석을 위한 변화점 접근방법

• 영문명: Change-point Approach for Analyzing Failure Trend in Repairable Generating Systems
• 발행기관: 한국산업경영시스템학회
• 저자명: 홍민표(Min Pyo Hong) 배석주(Suk Joo Bae)
• 간행물 정보: 『산업경영시스템학회지』제32권 제1호, 11~19쪽, 전체 9쪽
• 주제분류: 공학 > 산업공학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2009.03.31

영문 초록

A number of trend test methods, i.e., Military Handbook test and Laplace test etc., have been applied to investigate recurrent failures trend in repairable systems. Existing methods provide information about only existence of trend in the system. In this paper, we propose a new change-point test based on the Schwarz Information Criterion(SIC). The change-point approach is more informative than other trend test methods in that it provides the number of change-points and the location of change-points if it exists, as well as the existence of change-point for recurrent failures. The change-point test is applied to nine 300MW generating units operated in East China. We confirm that the change-point test has a potential for establishing optimal preventive maintenance policy by detecting change-point of failure rate.

키워드

Change-Point Repairable System Trend Test Poisson Process