가치스코어 모형을 이용한 기상정보의 기업 의사결정에 미치는 영향 평가

• 영문명: The Effect of Meteorological Information on Business Decision-Making with a Value Score Model
• 발행기관: 한국산업경영시스템학회
• 저자명: 이기광(Ki-Kwang Lee) 이중우(Joong-Woo Lee)
• 간행물 정보: 『산업경영시스템학회지』제30권 제2호, 89~98쪽, 전체 10쪽
• 주제분류: 공학 > 산업공학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2007.06.30

영문 초록

  In this paper the economic value of weather forecasts is valuated for profit-oriented enterprise decision-making situations. Value is estimated in terms of monetary profits (or benefits) resulted from the forecast user’s decision under the specific payoff structure, which is represented by a profit/loss ratio model combined with a decision function and a value score (VS). The forecast user determines a business-related decision based on the probabilistic forecast, the user’s subjective reliability of the forecasts, and the payoff structure specific to the user’s business environment. The VS curve for a meteorological forecast is specified by a function of the various profit/loss ratios, providing the scaled economic value relative to the value of a perfect forecast. The proposed valuation method based on the profit/loss ratio model and the VS is adapted for hypothetical sets of forecasts and verified for site-specific probability of precipitation forecast of 12 hour and 24 hour-lead time, which is generated from Korea meteorological administration (KMA). The application results show that forecast information with shorter lead time can provide the decision-makers with great benefits and there are ranges of profit/loss ratios in which high subjective reliability of the given forecast is preferred.

목차

1. 서론
2. 이익-손실 모형(profit-loss model)과 의사결정함수(decision function)
3. 기상예보 가치 분석
4. 실제 데이터의 적용
5. 결론
참고문헌

키워드

Profit/Loss Model 2×2 Contingency Table Value Score Decision Function