위안화의 평가절상 가능성과 정책적 시사점 : 정치경제학적 접근

• 영문명: The Possible Revaluation of the Chinese Yuan and Its Policy Ramifications: A Political Economy Approach
• 발행기관: 한국경제연구원
• 저자명: 이연호 허찬국
• 간행물 정보: 『한국경제연구원 연구보고서』연구보고서 (2004), 1~88쪽, 전체 88쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2004.01.01

영문 초록

The emergence of the Chinese economy as another large open economy in the past ten years has been a major event globally, and particularly so to the Asian neighboring economies such as Korea. Its ramifications are presumed to be positive overall but accompanying adjustment processes are not necessarily smooth. We observed an upsurge in global interest in the exchange value of the Chinese renminbi in 2003, and it was started by governmental and private observers in the U.S. who raised charges China had gained disproportionate export competitiveness by artificially keeping its exchange value of the currency low. This paper deals with issues related to the exchange value of the renminbi of the Chinese economy. We first offer a systematic examination of the political as well as economic developments that had led to the current situation. Then an overview of the Chinese exchange rate system as well as estimations of how much the Chinese yuan is under-valued using a simple models of the purchasing power parity and interest rate parity are presented. In addition, we examine the impact of an expected re-valuation of the yuan on Korea's exports, which is somewhat beneficial as it would help Korea's export price competitiveness. However, finally, we conclude that the most important effect of the expected yuan revaluation will be increased pressure on the exchange value of the Korean won, hence Korean government as well as businesses need to prepare for that eventuality.

목차

발 간 사

제1장 문제의 제기：위안화 환율문제의 본질

제2장 주요 관련 당사자들의 입장

제3장 중국의 환율제도와 위안화 저평가 정도

제4장 중국의 득실과 예상 대응방안 및 환율전망

제5장 위안화 절상이 우리나라에 미치는 영향과 대응방안

참고문헌

ABSTRACT