Determinants of German and Japanese Exports: A Comparative Study

• 발행기관: 세종대학교 경제통합연구소
• 저자명: George K. Zestos Yixiao Jiang Clifton Painter
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of Economic Integration』제36권 제3호, 339~371쪽, 전체 33쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2021.09.30

영문 초록

This study investigates the determinants of German and Japanese exports in a comparative fashion. By estimating an autoregressive distributed lag model for each country, we find that the income elasticity of Japanese exports is three times as large as that of Germany’s exports. This relative insensitivity to external demand explains why Germany has maintained its export growth whereas Japanese exports started to stagnate after the global financial crisis. Because Germany adopted the euro in 1999, it was able to maintain large trade surpluses. If Germany had instead kept the Deutsche Mark (DM), the DM would have appreciated owing to the Central Bank of Germany’s consistent preference for a tight monetary policy, and Germany’s trade surpluses would have dissipated. A sharp increase in Japanese foreign direct investment after 2011 has also played a role in reducing Japanese exports after the global financial crisis.

목차

I. Introduction

II. Literature Review

III. A Historical Primer on the Birth of the Modern States of Japan and Germany

IV. Modern Japanese and German Industrial Policies

V. Data and Variables

VI. Methodology

VII. Empirical Findings

VIII. Concluding Remarks

키워드

Autoregressive distributed lag model Export-led growth Cointegration Economic development