A Momentary Lapse of Reason? Assessing the Pre- and Post-Brexit Preferences of UK Citizens

• 발행기관: 세종대학교 경제통합연구소
• 저자명: Etienne Farvaque Muhammad Azmat Hayat Ifrah Siddique
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of Economic Integration』제36권 제3호, 372~408쪽, 전체 37쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2021.09.30

영문 초록

We analyze the persistence of the major determinants of distrust toward the European Union (EU) and pro-Brexit voting attitudes of citizens of the United Kingdom. Looking both backward and forward, our analysis confirms that Euroscepticism is deep-rooted, although the data reveal differences across different parts of the country. We observe no major transformation in the favor of the EU over the last two decades or in the post-referendum period. We also carry out an age-period-cohort analysis by interacting age and cohort effects with time to analyze the evolution of individual preferences. We find that an aging population will promote Eurosceptic assertiveness. We then implement a demographic forecasting analysis to predict whether the level of distrust of older cohorts can be offset by differing attitudes among younger cohorts in the future. On the contrary, we find that demographic trends will tend to strengthen distrust in the EU.

목차

I. Introduction

II. Literature Review

III. Pre-Brexit Determinants: Data and Methodology

IV. Pre-Brexit Determinants: Results

V. Post-Brexit Persistence? Results from an APC Analysis

VI. Conclusion

키워드

Brexit voting attitudes preferences distrust European Union