Exchange Rate Regimes in the ASEAN: Would a Currency Union Outperform the Independent Managed Floating Regimes?

• 발행기관: 세종대학교 경제통합연구소
• 저자명: Ibrahima Sangaré
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of Economic Integration』제36권 제1호, 72~102쪽, 전체 31쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2021.03.31

영문 초록

This paper compares the macroeconomic and welfare performances of the currency union against those from the independent managed floating regime using a two open-country DSGE model with the foreign currency denomination of private debt. The model is calibrated on the average data from the five founding members of the ASEAN and the performance of regimes is assessed under the effects of supply and demand shocks. We find that the macroeconomic and welfare performances of the ASEAN economies under the independent managed floating regimes are comparable to those under a currency union. This is explained by the stability of the intra-regional nominal exchange rates arising from the similarity of policy rules under the independent managed floating regimes. Our findings suggest that the choice of exchange rate targeting regimes with coordinated policies for the ASEAN countries would be an effective way to move towards a currency union.

목차

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ.A Two Open-Region DSGE Model

Ⅲ. Calibration of the Model and Simulations Results

Ⅳ. Concluding Remarks

키워드

ASEAN monetary union DSGE model intra-regional exchange rate stability