China in 2005: Implications for the Rest of the World

• 영문명: China in 2005: Implications for the Rest of the World
• 발행기관: 세종대학교 경제통합연구소
• 저자명: Channing Arndt Thomas Hertel Betina Dimaranan Karen Huff Robert McDougall
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of Economic Integration』제12권 제4호, 505~547쪽, 전체 43쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 1997.12.31

영문 초록

This paper analyzes the impact of continued rapid growth in china on her trading partners using a multiregion, applied general equilibrium model. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that most developing countries benefit from china`s growth. Product differentiation plays a key role in this finding. systematic analysis of these welfare gains shows that, as expected, simple terms of trade calculations based on net trade positions and average world price changes predict a loss for the developing countries. However, with the exceptions of South Asia and Thailand, this loss is overshadowed by a positive movement in region-specific export price indices. Second-best effects also play a significant role in the gains for a number of the developing countries. (JEL Classification: Fl1, F15)

목차

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Projections Methodology

Ⅲ. Base Case Results

Ⅳ. Assessing the lmpact of China s Growth

Ⅴ. Summary and Conclusions