Containing China versus Choking the Asian Economy

• 영문명: Containing China versus Choking the Asian Economy
• 발행기관: 한국무역학회
• 저자명: 정인교 임병호 유예리
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of Korea Trade (JKT)』Vol.27 No.5, 137~152쪽, 전체 16쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2023.10.31

영문 초록

Purpose - Although many existing studies on the US-China hegemonic conflict and decoupling have been published, most of them are qualitative and use descriptive analysis methods. Papers that quantitatively analyzed decoupling mainly estimate the effect of a tariff increase. However, this paper quantitatively analyzed the ripple effect by focusing on decoupling technology spillover between the United States and China. And, for the first time, it was suggested that the blocking of technology spillover could give a fatal blow to the East Asian economy as well as China. Design/methodology - The United States is pursuing decoupling with China, primarily in goods trade and blocking technology transfer. This paper sets up various scenarios and uses three computational general equilibrium (CGE) models to analyze the overall ripple effects of decoupling. A paper using the three CGE models for decoupling ripple effect analysis has not yet been published. Findings - Decoupling will hit the economies of regions with close economic ties to China more than others. According to simulation results of this study, the Chinese economy may suffer severe damage that is difficult to recover from, and the economies of Asian countries are predicted to deteriorate to the point of being choked. Originality/value - Existing papers that assessed the effect of decoupling mostly focus on estimating the effect itself through tariff hikes. This paper is meaningful in that it comprehensively analyzed decoupling by adding the effect of technology spillover blockade. In addition, another meaning can be found in that it quantified for the first time that it will deal a huge blow to the extent of choking the East Asian economy as well as China.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Literature Review of the Impact from US-China Decoupling

3. Simulation Models and Decoupling Shocks

4. Simulation results and interpretations

5. Conclusions

References

키워드

China containment Computational general equilibrium (CGE) model Decoupling Technology spillover Trade war